COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality in Pre-Dialysis Chronic Kidney Disease Patients (preprint)

Many studies reported a higher risk of COVID-19 disease among patients on dialysis or with kidney transplantation, and the poor outcome of COVID-19 in these patients. Patients in conservative management for chronic kidney disease (CKD) have received attention only recently, therefore less is known about how COVID-19 affects this population. The aim of this study was to provide evidence on COVID-19 incidence and mortality in CKD patients followed up in an integrated healthcare program and in the population living in the same catchment area.The study population included CKD patients in conservative management recruited in the Emilia-Romagna Prevention of Progressive Renal Insufficiency (PIRP) project, followed up in the 4 nephrology units (Ravenna, Forlì, Cesena and Rimini) of the Romagna Local Health Authority (Italy) and alive at 1.01.2020. We estimated the incidence of COVID-19, its related mortality and the excess mortality within the PIRP cohort as of 31.07.2020. COVID-19 incidence in CKD patients was 4.09% (193/4,716 patients), while in the general population it was 0.46% (5,195/1,125,574). The crude mortality rate among CKD patients with COVID-19 was 44.6% (86/193), compared to 4.7% (215/4,523) in CKD patients without COVID-19. The excess mortality of March-April 2020 was +69.8% than the average mortality of March-April 2015-19 in the PIRP cohort. In a cohort mostly including regularly followed up CKD patients, the incidence of COVID-19 disease and COVID-19 related mortality were about ten times higher than those of the general population. The incidence of COVID-19 among CKD patients was strongly related to the spread of the infection in the community, while its lethality is associated with the underlying kidney condition and comorbidities. For this reason, it is urgent to offer a direct protection to CKD patients by prioritizing their vaccination.

SARS-CoV-2 lethality decreased over time in two Italian Provinces (preprint)

Background Some experts recently reported that SARS-CoV-2 lethality decreased considerably, but no evidence is yet available. This retrospective cohort study aimed to evaluate whether SARS-CoV-2 case-fatality rate decreased with time, adjusting for several potential confounders. Methods We included all subjects diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection in Ferrara and Pescara provinces, Italy. Information were collected from local registries, clinical charts, and electronic health records. We compared the case-fatality rate (after >=28 days of follow-up) of the subjects diagnosed during April and March, 2020. We used Cox proportional hazards analysis and random-effect logistic regression, adjusting for age, gender, hypertension, type II diabetes, major cardiovascular diseases (CVD), chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD), cancer and renal disease. Results The sample included 2493 subjects (mean age 58.6y; 47.7% males). 258 persons deceased, after a mean of 16.1 days of follow-up. The mean age of those who died substantially increased from March (78.1+/-11.0y) to April (84.3+/-10.2y). From March to April, the case-fatality rate did not decrease in the total sample (9.5% versus 12.1%; adjusted hazard ratio 0.93; 95% Confidence Interval: 0.71-1.21; p=0.6), and in any age-class. Conclusions In this sample, SARS-CoV-2 case-fatality rate did not decrease over time, in contrast with recent claims of a substantial improvement of SARS-CoV-2 clinical management. The findings require confirmation from larger datasets.

Predictors of severe or lethal COVID-19, including Angiotensin Converting Enzyme Inhibitors and Angiotensin II Receptor Blockers, in a sample of infected Italian citizens (preprint)

Aims: This retrospective case-control study was aimed at identifying potential independent predictors of severe/lethal COVID-19, including the treatment with Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme inhibitors (ACEi) and/or Angiotensin II Receptor Blockers (ARBs). Methods and Results: All adults with SARS-CoV-2 infection in two Italian provinces were followed for a median of 24 days. ARBs and/or ACEi treatments, and hypertension, diabetes, cancer, COPD, renal and major cardiovascular diseases (CVD) were extracted from clinical charts and electronic health records, up to two years before infection. The sample consisted of 1603 subjects (mean age 58.0y; 47.3% males): 454 (28.3%) had severe symptoms, 192 (12.0%) very severe or lethal disease (154 deaths; mean age 79.3 years; 70.8% hypertensive, 42.2% with CVD). The youngest deceased person aged 44 years. Among hypertensive subjects (n=543), the proportion of those treated with ARBs or ACEi were 88.4%, 78.7% and 80.6% among patients with mild, severe and very severe/lethal disease, respectively. At multivariate analysis, no association was observed between therapy and disease severity (Adjusted OR for very severe/lethal COVID-19: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.50-1.49). Significant predictors of severe disease were older age (with AORs largely increasing after 70 years of age), male gender (AOR: 1.76; 1.40-2.23), diabetes (AOR: 1.52; 1.05-2.18), CVD (AOR: 1.88; 1.32-2.70) and COPD (1.88; 1.11-3.20). Only gender, age and diabetes also predicted very severe/lethal disease. Conclusion: No association was found between COVID-19 severity and treatment with ARBs and/or ACEi, supporting the recommendation to continue medication for all patients unless otherwise advised by their physicians.